[Aaron W.]

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So the only time your return is larger than your investment is if everyone folds. Otherwise, your return on investment is 50% or less.

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You are confusing ROI with profit. The percent figures are not interchangable (ROI is profit plus 100). This bet is profitable as long as no one holds a king, queen, ace, or four. I endorse this bet.

Edit : Correction, I shouldn't say that ROI is profit plus 100, that's blatantly wrong. But your post seems to be saying that betting actually loses money, that's what I'm trying to say is incorrect.

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I thought ROI was the ratio of "net return" to "investment". So if you invested $1000 in the stock market and it was worth $1100 at the end of the year, then you have a 10% ROI (+100/1000). Do I have the terminology wrong?