Re: Nut flush draw w/ mid pair....
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3:1 on a call, and you must be joking when you said you folded.
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How is it 3:1 ?
It's a $15 call into a $24 pot. That's not even 1:2.
The way I figured it, I had:
- 9 diamonds that could help me
- a few outs that could come up with some straight draws (would need runner runner)
- 2 T's that would give me trips
- other options for 2 pair (4 outs)
With flush overlap, I'm looking at about 14-15 outs here.
The pot odds aren't great, as he's fully committed and I'm getting no implied odds at all.
thoughts?
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you have 14 outs against a one pair hand like QJs and are actually a 50.5 to 49.5 favorite. if he has QT, you still have 44.5% equity with 12 outs to win. if he has QQ, then you only have 9 outs minus redraws for his full house...still 29% equity.
looks like the pot is $31 with $15 to call. it's only slightly -EV if he has a set and +EV any other time you're behind.
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