[J. Stew]

Straight out of Hand Quizzes -- Flop Play SSHE

"You have 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and three players cold-call. You call (10.5 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot and a flush draw. What should you do?

Answer: Check with the intention of raising a bet from early position." pg. 274-275 SSHE

Hypothesis: <font color="blue">The number of players in the pot determines whether you should check-raise or check-call.</font>

So you check with the intention of raising and believe you need to hit one of your 13 outs (four 5's and nine [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s) to win. The pf raiser bets, but all three cold-callers fold and it is back to you (11.5 small bets). You'll hit an out on the turn 28% (13/46) of the time but you have a chance to hit the river as well so you have a 29% chance (13/45) to hit the river if you don't hit the turn.

Question #1: How do these two percentages (28%, on the flop for the turn and 29%, on the turn for the river) combine to give you an estimate of how often your draw comes in when you are on the flop? I think this might be simple but I'm kinda stoopid. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Question #2: Say this percentage, that your draw will come in by the river, is 42%. Is this number your equity in the hand?

Back to the hand . . .
There are 11.5 small bets in the pot and the action is back to you, head up with pf raiser who bet the flop. If your equity is 42%, his must be around 58% barring the chance of a split pot.

Question #3: Assuming there is no chance the pf raiser is going to fold to a raise calling is the best option because you are getting 11.5-1 and you will make your draw 42% of the time or about one in 2.4 times or 2.4-1. You should <font color="red">call</font> because your equity (42%) is less than his (58%)???

Now, say one of the pf cold-callers called the pf raiser's flop bet and the action is back to you (12.5 small bets) and you believe he has a pair of tens or a hand that you can beat if your draw comes in.

Question #4: Assuming your equity is above 1/3 or 33%, you should <font color="red">raise</font> when the action is back to you because you have an edge in equity here, while when you were heads up with the pf raiser you did not???

Conclusion:<font color="blue"> In this hand, the addition of one player changed our flop action from a check-call to a check-raise.</font>

Thanks for any input or swear words you guys can give.