Re: Single table satellite end game hand...
interesting hand
I'de put UTG on a very tight range, possibly even QQ+, which you're 30.9% against. However, you can come out ahead by winning the sidepot against the donk, who i'de put on 22+,A2+,KTs,KJo+ which makes you 62.9% against him.
Against UTG you make: .309*550=169.95 for a win and loose .691*350= 241.85 for a net loss of 72 chips.
800 to be won from the sidepot, so if you win 62.9% of the time you come out ahead 206.4 chips.
206.4-72= 134 total chips gained.
Obviously, these calculations are incomplete and done quickly, but it can give you an estimate.
possible problems besides the math:
-I really don't know what hand range to put UTG on. There's a decent chance that he has a hand other than QQ+ and is doing something weird.
-UTG+1 could have a wider range
This is probably a call
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