[JTrout]

Thank you for the time and effort you've put into this thread.
The U.S. economy has it's problems right now. Most notably is fuel cost. There is no doubt that the cost of filling up your vehicle is putting a strain on the already tight budget of the typical Wal-Mart customer.
However, this does not mean that these customers will stop shopping Wal-Mart, only that they may spend less.

Necessities will be purchased at the cheapest place in tight times.
And, too, some people that choose a higher end grocery store or dept. store may begin to spend more at WalMart in an effort to cut costs.

I grew up in a small town- with migrant workers, factory workers, middl-class folks, and upper-middle class.
And they all spend some of their money in WalMart.
I have been in dozens of different Wal-Marts, and they are always full of customers. Always.(I know, "Always" is a strong word [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

The main reason that WalMart has been stagnate the past 5 years is that it is reflecting what the market has done as a whole.
Walmart, and the market, were significantly overpriced 5 yrs. ago, I think most everyone agrees.
It may or may not still be overpriced- that is a debatable topic. But it's certain that much of the risk of purchasing and owning WMT (or the market) has declined in the past 5 years.

And they are increasing their e.p.s. every year.
And increasing their sales, while maintaining profit margin.
And their ROE is maintaining, even growing slightly, at a very respectable 20% or so- indicating solid mgmt.
Increasing cash flow and dividend consistently.

Their Earning Predictability is rated the highest that Value-Line rates.
Their earnings the past 12 mo. is $2.50 per share.
Their earning projection is to be at $3.00 per share in 12-18 mos., and $4.40 in 3-5 yrs.

At $44 price tag, I'm paying a forward P/E of 15 and 10, respectively, for low-risk growth of 13.5%.


Short-term= who knows. WMT is just as likely to be down as up. But coming into Christmas season, I like my chances.


I don't know why WMT has declined the last few months, and I should.
Maybe they missed earning projections by a cent, maybe some analyst put out a negative report or article and the sheep followed.

However, I look at it as a positive opportunity, rather than a major concern.

But long-term is where we have our advantage in the market, and WMT long term looks very attractive to the risk-averse investor.