[King Yao]

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My feeling was that bet/fold has a higher ev than check/call here.


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I like your idea. Given the play of the hand, he may have a lower pocket pair which he is less likely to bet than he is to call. If I had checked on the River, I feel compelled to call a bet because his play just didn't seem dangerous (just calling on the Flop, and not betting on the Turn). So if I had checked, I would have called. So it comes down to:

Bet/Fold (because a raise can only mean Trip Js or a slow-play)
Check/Call

It does seem Bet/Fold is better because you put yourself in the same position if you have the worse hand (losing one bet), but you give yourself the opportunity to make an extra bet when you may not have made that extra bet if you had checked.