[SparkyDog]

Excellent post.

And I think I agree with a lot of what you say. Much better thought out reasoning than the reflexive, "equity edge raise!!!1!" mantra.

EDIT to include turn play:

I don't think he'll fold very many pocket pairs, which is the only hands you want to fold that he plausibly will. I don't like a check-raise semi-bluff because I don't think he'll really fold all that many hands that you're behind. So I prefer a river donk if you improve in any way at all.