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Old 10-07-2005, 04:37 PM
jon_1van jon_1van is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Silver Spring MD
Posts: 53
Default Re: Probability question

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I think I found the solution to my own problem. There was a similar question asked at the Wizard of Odds website. So I adapted the equation to my purposes.

let p = probability of an event; in this case, the probability of getting dealt at least one 9 in stud
which shown above is ~=0.21738

h = # hands in a given session

Thus hp = expected number of hands dealt in that session with at least one 9

Using the Wizard's formula:

SD = sqrt (hp - (1-p))

= sqrt (200 x 0.21738 - (1-0.21738))

= sqrt (43.5 - .78262)

= 5.83

So in 200 hands within 1 std deviation, you should see at least one Nine in ~37-49 hands.

Not especially useful I guess, especially since this forum is pretty devoid of any 'poker is rigged' posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you get your forumla right?

I don't think you did.

I think the appropriate formula is

SD = sqrt(npq) where n = number of hands, p = prob of getting dealt a 9 in a single hand, q = prob of not get dealt a 9 (or 1-p)

E[x] = p*n = 43.5

SD = 1.86

Your results of 55 hands with a 9 was 6 standard devs away from the average.
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