Re: Thoughts on Expected Value
You seem to have two posts [1] what's EV about, and [2] darn it, I'm losing with AA.
[1] At any point in the hand you can check and fold which has EV of zero (0). That means that all other possible plays (betting, calling) should have a positive EV before you do it. But I would also like to point out that your job is to find the BEST play, not just one with possitive EV: calling may be plus EV when you have the nuts, but raising is better.
[2] Looking for reasons to fold AA in big pots is generally a mistake. By the time you figure you are probably beat, "probably" isn't good enough so you should call. I suspect, however, that [a] you are putting in one or two raises too many when its obvious that you are "probably" beat, and [b] you've had some bad luck with AA. Consider recalculating your results, turning one AA loss into a win and seeing how well you are doing then.
- Louie
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