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I've been top 3 or so for most of the tourney, and likley seen as pretty tight if I have any image at all. Just had KK busted by AQo 4-5 hands ago for 1/3 of my stack,

think a lot about a fold


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I think that your previous play is probably affecting your judgment. Understandable, but you can't win like that.

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but I'm still top 6 or so with 40k, blinds at 600/1200, ante 100 or so.

Somehow expecting many to say push preflop.


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Given your stack size, I wouldn't say push pre-flop (although some more knowledgable than I could probably argue well for it). Even against TT-QQ, you're at roughly a 13% disadvantage. There's a decent chance you take down the pot right there, but not if the guy really does have As or Ks, and probably not if he has Qs and is willing to re-raise with them.

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In hindsight, I think this is WAWB and I should try and call this down, but in general, I'm not sure the line here.


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I could be completely wrong here, but I'm guessing that you lost the hand given your tone and use of the word "hindsight."

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I'm nervous about KK/AA here, but thinking he might make that move with QQ/JJ or AK/AQ as well. Maybe even weaker if he'd seen me fold to a couple reraises.


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Your nervousness is understandable. I wouldn't fold, but I can understand being nervous. I suppose one important question is, "Did he see you fold to a couple of reraises?" If so, then this could possibly be a move. I doubt it, blinds are too easily picked off at this stage to be reraising with JJ or AQ, but you saw the guy play, not me, so he could be doing just that.

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Flop is Q rag rag. I check, he checks. River is A putting two clubs on board and giving me TPTK obviously. I check, he raises about 5k. I push here hoping I've just found AJ, or KQs etc probing.


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I probably have to c-bet the flop right here, 1/2 pot should be good. It would be almost a third of what he has left. Good chance that the c-bet folds AK, JJ.

Well, the question is, what hands are you still afraid of here. I think the answer is probably QQ, and possibly AQ/AA. Like I said, I doubt he re-raised with AQ (although it is possible), and he almost certainly didn't do it with KQ/AJ (I'm assuming a certain caliber of player here. I've never played in this tourney, maybe that's unjustified, cuz I've certainly seen these re-raises a lot in the lower buy-ins, especially early in the blinds). A reraise with AA is very likely, but I think that AA/KK probably bets on the flop or maybe the turn, it has to be thinking about QQ at least, hoping you call with AQ. I think AQ needs to define its position (your opponent must at least consider that you have AA/KK/QQ), and so it likely bets the flop. AK on his end probably c-bets the flop. I think JJ or TT certainly bets the flop after your check, don't want to give you any chances to improve, and it would probably fire again after the turn, assuming you check-called the flop bet. If the villian had KK, he wouldn't bet the A on the river. Your play screams weak AK(J?). So, I give him 30% Qs, 10% AA, 10% KK, 5% AQ, 20% AK, 25%x. x is a poorly played anything else. You played that so tight, that he might figure you'll lay down whatever you have to any sort of raise.

Pushing here gets you called by AA, QQ, AQ. I think that it folds KK/AK/x. You might still get called by AK. You could be called by KK sometimes, but that seems unlikely

The moral of the story? C-bet. Should you push given the way you played until now? No, probably not. It only folds hands you have beat/split pot with. To push, I'd have to put the guy solidly on AK, very solidly. Otherwise, you're risking a whole bunch of chips. Remember, don't raise the river unless it is going to do something for you. If raising it will allow you to win with a lesser hand than your opponent, raise. If it will allow you to extract more money from someone who you have beat, raise. If it's basically likely to get you called by a better hand, just call. Again, this is all assuming your opponent is a half-way decent poker player, not a donk who got lucky for the last three hours. You could run math to show for sure, but with the assumptions I've made, pushing here is definately -EV. If you can put him on a much higher percentage of AK (or something else you beat that calls you), then go ahead and push, but otherwise just call. A re-raise worth it's salt pot commits you, so certainly don't re-raise without pushing.

Will