[Zetack]

This was a very interesting post Lex, because I hear so many low limit players moaning about the aces and how they never hold up and how much they hate em.

Also I enjoyed your comment about the kings because coincidently enough, the last two sessions I've had I had statistically way more than my share of kings and they've really held up well. I think I had them either four or five times last session and I lost with them once. Tonight (I'm playing as I type---good strategy eh?) I've had KK twice and won with em both times. That's just a statistical anomaly though, hard to draw the conclusion from that that Kings are better than aces.

Ok to the aces. First of all I'm wondering if your stat with the aces (40 percent win, 60 percent loss) is accurate or just a guess-timate. In a nine handed table, if all nine players stay in to the river and nobody folds on the river, aces hold up about 35 percent of the time....I'm assuming SOME people fold in your game, so you would expect to win with them more often than forty percent.

Ok, assuming its not a guesstimate but your actual win percentage I'd ask what your sample size is. To start drawing conclusions that hold much chance of being correct you need a large sample. I'd like to see your results for a hundred pair of aces. Even that's pretty low, but the problem is that you get pocket aces once every 221 hands, so to get them a hundred times you need to play 22,100 hands....that's a lot.

Ok, I was guessing that in my micro limit games I was winning with my aces 60 to 70 percent of the time (just a guess.) So then I hit a bad streak with them where they held up just once out of six tries so I started keeping track. Including that one for six, I'm now 6 for 13 of them winning including my last four times in a row. So that's what, 5 of my last seven? Perhaps they are streaky.

Ok Aces, as good as they are are just one pair. There's a lot of things that beat a pair. And in low limit lots of people may be in the pot. Unlike high limit where two or three people seeing the flop may be common, you are likely to find a lot of people in with you. If six or seven people are drawing at you, somebody stands a good chance of outdrawing you. Of course once every 8.5 times that you have poket aces you will flop a set...and if that's not good enough, on the turn with your ace set you will have ten outs to make quads or a boat on the river...

Ok, so it seems like you lose large pots with AA and win only a small amount? Well that's natural. Think about it, if a lot of people are in building a big pot, there's a good chance somebody will hit something, a set, a straight, a flush, that they will be willing to put even more money into. If its a small field well you showed agression pre-flop by raising and reraising (you did show aggression didn't you?) and then you led out or raised or check raised on the flop....anybody who is willing to get into a raising war with you (and make the pot large in a small field) after you've shown that strength, probably can beat a pair. It's important to either get out or limit your damage when you are likely beaten. And if you've showed that aggression and nobody has a good hand or draw, its likely that they are gonna go away with out building the pot too much. Again, its important to limit you damage when you have the worst of it, but don't try to be sneaky in low limit to build a pot....get the money in there fast...a smaller win is better than a bigger loss when you let them outdraw you for free, or on the cheap.

Soooo....pay attention to the action and the situation. If a ton of people come in, you are much more likely to get your aces cracked. In a big field be prepared for the possibility of the aces going bad...study the board and the action (and the tendencies of the players as well--a maniac or somebody who'll go to the mat with top pair big kicker is less scary than a better player in a raising war).

Yeah, aces sometimes cost you a lot, because they are hard to lay down, and sometimes you just get unlucky. I had one hand recently where my judgement of the board and the one player who stayed in with me was that I was ahead, we ran that pot way up, then he rivered a gutshot straight to beat me... Well that happens. But I tell you what, give me aces on every hand...(well scratch that, if I always had aces my competitors would figure it out)...give me aces on average once every ten hands and I'm a rich rich man...So don't fret the aces, just remember its still just one pair, and in low limit, one pair is very vulnerable.

Oh, and I would expect your results in NL tourneys to be better with the Aces, because you can shut down people drawing at you by makeing a big bet...you can limit the field and heads up your aces have a big advantage, and you can usually drive out people drawing to a hand that would beat yours, which is harder to do in limit, particularly low limit.

Ok, I was gonna comment on QQ and JJ but I find I've run out of steam, so perhaps another time.

--Zetack