[bozlax]

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To the first, we already know that UTG is TAG, so not incredibly passive. My default read on the Party .5/1 player is that he's equally likely to be unnecessarily aggressive or ridiculously passive, so that leaves me with one out of three opponents that is "likely" to have a premium hand better than mine.

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I can't believe that nobody's going to challenge this. I think it's right...I just can't believe there's going to be zero discussion of it.

I've also been driving around and realized that I'm not comfortable with the 40 bets number. In the first place, it's only 34, since you're about 8.5:1 to hit your set on the flop, right? Second, that only applies if you're folding to any number of bets on the flop if you don't hit your set. Hypothetically:

Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, four to the flop for 16.5SB and you've lost your TAG.

Flop: 922r.
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero ?

Now if you're behind you only have to make up 2BB if you hit on the turn, and it's ever more likely that you're getting dead money from at least one of BB and UTG+2.

I remember being (correctly) hammered in this forum for being scared to 3-bet JJ preflop. If I'm not guaranteed position, here (say I open-raise in MP1 and it's 3-bet by LP, capped by Button, SB folds and BB calls) I think it's an easier bail out, but with position I think we have to see the flop.