Re: ($20) Early AKs
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Guess what-- you're PROBABLY BUSTING OUT OF THIS TOURNAMENT. You bust out of MOST of them. Probably somewhere in the range of 98-99% of them, which if you're on the lower end of that scale is probably fantastic.
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Are you kiddin' me?
Are you seriously equating tournament departure out of the money, and tournament departure in the money, as the same thing?
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My goal is to win. If I win a lesser prize it is a failure that I incidentally profited from.
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I'll certainly agree that a win rate of a couple percent is pretty respectable. But final table play and strategy should not be even remotely related to play and strategy an hour or two away from the money.
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I disagree with this, since I feel you constantly have to be accumulating chips to stay competitive and ahead of the blinds. You can wait a little while you're ahead, but a good spot is a good spot.
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It's a step by step process. In order to win, you first have to be at the FT. In order to be at the FT, you first have to get into the money. In order to get into the money, you have to get your stuff in consistently when you have the best of it, not just when you feel like taking random shots.
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I'm pretty strong in the camp that we DO have the best of it here and can't for the life of me see how people are finding hand ranges that makes this play terrible. So I don't consider this a random shot by any means.
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This is the problem with the survivalist strategy: It treats busting out of the tournament as a mortal sin, unforgivable, and one that must be avoided at all costs.
Guess what: The prize isn't for surviving, it's for finishing first. You cannot "survive" your way to all of the chips.
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This is all well and good. The problem is that you consider anyone with less than all out kamikaze mentality to be a survivalist.
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Perhaps you consider anyone with anything more than a survivalist mentality to be a kamikaze.
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If that's what I am then that's what I am. I have no fear of pushing my stack in as regularly as needed. No one has clearly demonstrated the need in the OP's case, not relative to the first guy, who is already all in, but relative to the second guy, who can knock you out of the tournament.
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Because you probably have the best hand, and MP2 may fold, giving you effectively better than 2:1 odds to play your AKs heads up against a short stack, or because MP2 may call, and you may be all in while dominating. In the worst case, you may be nearly 50% chance to make the best hand with extra odds. In the worst worst case, you're screwed. But the possible presence of the worst worst case does not mean we should treat it as most likely and try to avoid it. It means we accept that danger because there are so many favorable reasons to take this shot.
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My experience with survivalist strategy is that you tend to finish in the top 1/3 pretty frequently. Of course, it doesn't pay until the top 10%, and by the time you finally have to make a move-- well before then-- your desperate all-in will be called and you'll be up against it or just get sucked out on.
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You make it sound as if every "survivalist" as you call them, crawls his way up from the basement and is lucky to walk away with whatever table scraps are left by the "surviving" kamikazes and truly lucky players. Nothing could be further from the truth.
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And you make it sound as if every "kamikaze" as you call them plays without regard to skill and makes crazy all-in bets for no reason, and every once in a great while gets lucky enough to end up at the final table will all the skilled players who survived their way there.
(We can play this game all day, you see. We won't learn anything, but sometimes it's fun to pick a side and defend it.)
I'm trying to capture the experiences I have had in tournaments and the mindset I bring to them now. It has brought me the most and most consistent success. Feel free to play your own way.
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