Re: ($20) Early AKs
This thread is a trainwreck. We're trying to help you, but you're not reading the responses. This first quote indicates you have A LOT of reading to do.
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Guess what-- you're PROBABLY BUSTING OUT OF THIS TOURNAMENT. You bust out of MOST of them. Probably somewhere in the range of 98-99% of them, which if you're on the lower end of that scale is probably fantastic.
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Are you kiddin' me?
Are you seriously equating tournament departure out of the money, and tournament departure in the money, as the same thing?
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Yes.
If I win 1 tourney buy in, I might as well have not placed. It's very literally basically the same thing for us. Thats how much value I (and good players here) place on getting just in the money.
Don't take what we're saying as advocating pushing 77 all the time or something, hoping to double up, like people do in rebuys. What we ARE saying is that you can't pass up possible +EV situations and expect to do well in a tourney. You have to take just about every possible +EV situation you can find, at any point in a tourney, to do well.
HERE IS THE KEY. Remember this grasshoppa. What the poster was saying, was that passing up these kinds of situations may make you place often, but not place high. ALL the significant money is at the top. The payout is basically exponential. So lots of just barely in the money places for $5 are USELESS AND A WASTE OF TIME. People on this forum are playing to win, not to place. ONE 4th place is better than literally 250+ just barely in the money finishes in this tournament. EVERY chip you win has value. What that means is that you basically CANNOT (especially in the 40k, with a 2200 person field) win/make the FT of a tourney without coming back from being behind at least once and/or winning when you were 30% to win but were going to tripple up (or something like that).
This is the idiotic mistake that stallers make during/after the bubble. Playing to win $10 is useless.
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This is the problem with the survivalist strategy: It treats busting out of the tournament as a mortal sin, unforgivable, and one that must be avoided at all costs.
Guess what: The prize isn't for surviving, it's for finishing first. You cannot "survive" your way to all of the chips.
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This is all well and good. The problem is that you consider anyone with less than all out kamikaze mentality to be a survivalist.
If that's what I am then that's what I am. I have no fear of pushing my stack in as regularly as needed. No one has clearly demonstrated the need in the OP's case, not relative to the first guy, who is already all in, but relative to the second guy, who can knock you out of the tournament.
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AKs is a group 1 hand. Treat it as such . This decision is only 1 step down in "hardness" from if you had AA/KK. As we've already said, the only hand you're afraid of the caller having is AA/KK, and even if he has KK you're still ~30% to win. This simply isn't likely, both statistically, and also based on his play. I think any reasonable player would have iso pushed here with AA/KK, but whatever. Then again, THIS IS THE 40K ON PARTY, I can't underscore this enough. Villian has a HUGE range, I would not be surprised to see a low PP here, or a worse ace. These people are idiots.
Read our responses, it's obvious from yours that you haven't.
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