[ravensfan]

Hey Devin,

Sorry about the length, this will explain my logic:
My point in *Buyin is about seeing the tourney as a whole. I was thinking that you'd want to estimate how much actual loot you'd take from the tourney based on this hand. In the end, it's all about how much money you keep. So, i guess i arbitrarily made up some numbers, but what i was trying to say was that you could clearly expect to make more money from this thing by folding IF he happened to call you.

If he was equally likely to have one or two overcards then it's very EV for him to do so (i believe it's pretty close to even for him to call with Axs, Kxs, Qxs, actually). Therefore, assuming he could put you on as good a hand as Js, you could still expect him to call... In which case, it's bad to push.
Maybe i'm losing it, does this make sense?

Then again, maybe he puts you on A10+ or something and doesn't feel like being dominated?! Or giving up his large stack that he's been wielding?! Or maybe he just thinks you're willing to race b/c he's been bullying the table and someone is bluffing into him... I think it's a little read-dependent for these reasons. I think though, these combine to reduce your FE.

That said, i've likely underestimated your FE, and depending on how frequent his raises were and how loose he is, he might very well fold, as he'd wish to wield his chips in the future... So, it's probably a little closer than I first thought.

I suppose that since he hadn't made too many donkish plays, I'd put him on a relatively good hand when betting into you, then again you had mentioned that he'd made a few raises...
Thing is, i think he gets good potodds if he has say Ax. I think his pot odds are correct to call (if he's only thinking about chips totals and not chip values). And it could be really hard for him to put you on Js, so he might think he's getting great odds with whatever he has versus two others, or maybe he puts you on something like 7s-9s...


I just figured that he was getting good pot odds and would likely call, especially if he wasn't donkish.

I was actually basing it on the FTOP, and assuming he has at least one, maybe two over cards, he has reasonable EV to call (i'm too tired to do the math, but i'd think it's close... if he has 2 overcards, he has very very +EV).

I just noticed, but isn't it funny how by racing you'll have less combined expected payout than by not racing - as in some of your expected return is given to the other players! (incidentally i believe this leads directly into game theory)... i guess this is why it's in everyone left in the hand's best interests to avoid a race (and this spot is more likely leading into a race) [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]