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Old 10-05-2005, 10:25 PM
bigredlemon bigredlemon is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 544
Default Re: stud8: do you bet here too?

Here's my thoughts on betting:
Anyone with a middle/high poker would have already let me know by 5th at the latest. The best hand they can have is a 4low with a 4straight/flush and that's the minimum they'll need to call a bet on 6th. They are expecting to pay 2BB to fight over half a BB in the likely split, and so they might even fold a weak two-way draw. So long as one person folds, I get to act last, so I may also get the chance to value bet if I hit my card or the option to check behind for a free showdown.

Now lets suppose I'm called by middle pair above 6 but below T. I'm a 2:1 underdog.
66%: I check/fold and lose 1BB with 66
33%: I bet/call and win 5.5BB with tens/kings up

for a net of +1BB everytime I make this play.
I may also lose with T/K up, or maybe I bet 6s up and get called by a better hand, or perhaps someone super-slowplayed or lucked into a monster, etc, but I don't think those situations outweight the far most likely scenario of everyone just folding it to my bet on 6th (probably 75% of the time). If the players were so loose that I thought they'd likely call, then I don't bet here of course.


Saying check/folding the small pot does seem like a very reasonable line to take. There's a good chance I can just win it at showdown with lone sixes if it is the best hand and a free card doesn't hurt me. maybe I'm not looking hard enough but I just cant find the math to say fold right now.
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