[Catt]

BB's stats imply he knows what he's doing. If he does know what he's doing (based on your observation of his post-flop play) then he almost certainly has a set on the flop; there's no way he's calling two cold getting 7:2 with a gutshot, and I think it pretty unlikely he'd do it with two pair, knowing that a tilting maniac is sitting on the button (I think he'd lead the flop). For some reason, everyone feels the need to "slowplay" sets on the flop (I think it is often correct, especially in an unraised pot on a baord like this, but it happens too often, IMHO). When he wakes up on the turn, I'd be hard-pressed to fold but I think it the right play if my post-flop read was strong enough -- he could conceivably still have two pair, he could have been goofy on the flop with TP that is now TP + SD etc. - but if I respect his post-flop play, I'd wish I could find a fold on the turn. I wouldn't three-bet, though, even if I didn't have the discpline to fold. When you hit on the river, I'd three-bet and call a cap. I simply do not believe that straights make up 67% of his likely hands, and I do not think he'll give me credit for top set given how I played pre-flop.