Re: Hand reading exercise and river action
Nice quiz.
45% chance of 78 -- which is a pity for Hero.
45% chance of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which explains why the flop thrilled him and the turn didn't do a thing for him. He's now trying a last-ditch stab at the pot with his busted draws, hoping to fold a single pair.
5% chance of 33 or 55. That fits the pre-flop and flop betting fine. It doesn't mesh with the turn at all -- and at a table with savvy players the probability of this is zero. But let's make a little room for illogical play.
5% chance of 77 or 88. Same basic train of thought as above.
I'd say call his river bet and see who's got what. Don't raise. If he's got you beat with the straight he will reraise you and if he's behind with the A2, he will fold. Only the last two hands would obligingly feed you more money if you raised, and they're unlikely. So it's hard to see how a raise by you here accomplishes anything.
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