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Old 10-05-2005, 07:22 PM
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Default Re: Turned straight being 3-bet

Assuming the turn gets capped, it will cost you 3 more BBs to call the turn, and the implied pot size (assuming both villains come along for the cap), will be 15 BBs. But this 15BBs needs to be discounted:

Chop: AK (9)
You are drawing dead: JT, JQ, JJ, QQ, or TT (19)
You are ahead but they are live: AJ, KJ (12)
You are ahead, they are drawing dead: K9, 98 (28)

Total possible combos: 68

Chop = 9/68 = 13%
You dead = 28%
You ahead, they are alive = 18%
They dead = 41%

Of the 18% trip jack scenarios, 30% of the time they will draw out on you on the river, and 70% of the time the board won't pair.

So the trip jack 18% really is:
You ahead, but they draw out on you: 6%
You ahead and stay ahead: 12%

So of the 15 BBs in the pot, on a discounted basis, you get the following:

AKChop(15*13%*50%) + BoatOnTurn(15*28%*0) + TripJack[(6%*0)+(12%*15)] + They'reDead(41%*15) = 8.9 BBs

This pot on the turn is paying you 8.9-to-3, or roughly 3:1 Yet on the turn, you are drawing dead 28% of the time, and will be dead by the river an additional 6% of the time. To be EV neutral, you need 2:1 or better.

You have an overlay of sorts (2:1 vs. 3:1), however consider that I have ignored flush redraws on the river, and I have also ignored the implied cost of seeing the showdown on the river (where it could be bet and raised again).

If you believe that the real cost of getting to showdown is more like 5-6BBs, a call on the turn is really slender. There's just not a ton of EV to the call, and it adds a lot of variance to your results.

Just my 2 cents. (PS--I did the math fast, so I may have errors, but you get the idea of my thinking.)

I just cant see calling here.
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