Re: ($20) Early AKs
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Is your argument based on the perspective that online players in this type of low buy-in format in the early stages of the tournament are all playing very bad?
Do you think that the caller will indeed fold after calling for 25% of his stack (16 X BB)?
At least as far as my experience goes, they usually call. It would be great to see them flip an AJ or AQ, but mostly I would expect to see a mid PP. My guess is that if I kept pushing in blind every time there was some heavy action (bets of 10+ x BB being made and called) preflop with AK I would get busted out. Eventually the 50% shot will go the wrong way when someone either sucks out or their pair holds up. Do you disagree and why?
Do you prefer to get all your chips in early in low buy in online tourneys early, on 50/50 to try and accumulate chips fast? If so why?
Do you feel that flat calling this is putting too much emphasis on early stage survival?
p.s. I am not being a smart ass, I am seriously asking these questions looking for some solid reasoning. I really don't see the need for smart ass comments. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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You aren't thinking about this problem in terms of numbers at all, that's the issue.
It's not 50% to win the hand if you get headsup. That's elementary and just is easy to say. But let's say it was. You are 50/50 to win 760 when you only risked 245. So 245 to win 760, that means that you are very happy to be at 50% if you get it heads up. And if you actually put a solid range in for the UTG raiser, you are better than 50% to win against his range here. (Let's say 22+, AJ+, KQ at this level-he's short stacked and feels like he needs to make a move). So if MP2 folds we're really happy with the situation.
When you get called by MP2 as well, you are still looking good in terms of +cEV. There will be 1440 in the side pot. Against MP2 you are about even heads up to win the sidepot against his range as well (77+, AQ+), but that's quite a tight range.
So you are happy when MP2 folds, because you are ahead of UTG's range, and you are happy when MP2 calls as well, based on his range.
This is a very rough outline of what you should be looking at, I'm at work and don't have my poker calculator. In these long tourneys you need to take +cEV moves and this one is VERY +cEV.
Brad
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