Re: ($20) Early AKs
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Is your argument based on the perspective that online players in this type of low buy-in format in the early stages of the tournament are all playing very bad?
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Yes. Very very bad Jerry. 20+2s have terrible play period, but I have extra experiance particularly in the 40k. They are terrible.
For just one example, see my experiance yesterday. Someone called an UTG push for 10 bbs with AJ, then called another push (for twice as much). The Pusher had 66. Who pushes an UTG (that isn't really that desperate with 10 bbs) pusher, and a flat caller, with 66? The player with 66 had something like 25 bbs, and anyone with braincell knows the original caller will call, getting over 4:1 on his money. The caller and the pusher had about even money, so he put his tourney life on the line with 66...
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Do you think that the caller will indeed fold after calling for 25% of his stack (16 X BB)?
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You're missing the point. You want them to call. If they fold it's not a bad thing, but what you're trying to do is go heads up for most of the money here (~700). I'm not even sure it's a good thing if they fold . Calling also allows other people in on the hand, which makes it EVEN WORSE for you. Pushing here is win win, if they call, it's a win, if they fold, it's still a win, or at least not bad.
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I would expect to see a mid PP. My guess is that if I kept pushing in blind every time there was some heavy action (bets of 10+ x BB being made and called) preflop with AK I would get busted out. Eventually the 50% shot will go the wrong way when someone either sucks out or their pair holds up. Do you disagree and why?
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See my above post. If they have a mid pair, and the original pusher doesn't have AA/KK, the shorty's money is bascally ALL OVERLAY. That is, assuming your A/K outs are good (if you hit your A/K you will generally win) You're getting even money odds on JUST the caller, the shorty's money gives you MORE than even money. Nevermind that they could both have weaker aces, or you could be dominating the caller's weaker ace.
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Do you prefer to get all your chips in early in low buy in online tourneys early, on 50/50 to try and accumulate chips fast? If so why?
Do you feel that flat calling this is putting too much emphasis on early stage survival?
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Flat calling is bad for all the other reasons given. This isn't a 50/50 situation, if you understand that, your question goes away. As to the bigger issue, if I somehow *knew* that I was 50/50 in a situation, a situation being truly EV neutral, I might pass it up at an early stage of a tourney. But you never know you're exactly 50/50. Early in a tourney (before like 200/400 blinds AT LEAST) you can never be confident that you have a read good enough to lay down QQ/AA/AK PF against 1 caller. If you never folded QQ-AA/AK/AKs early in the 40k or a 20+2 you'd rarely be making a mistake. You just can't have reads on people in this tourney enough to lay down AKs here, ever.
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