[Big Dave D]

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Hmm.. I just checked out the thread you linked to, and even though I did not have the chance to read all of it, I think LA Price's comments basically summed it all up.

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You need to read further down. Although the circumstances in that particular case were very different than here.

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you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward.

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This is a hugely misleading statement. Your EV calculation *already* takes into account how much you could potentially win. And in this case you win, on average, -$60 ish for every $200 invested - a fairly disasterous result.

The truth is, in these very rare cases where you are against another AA and a run down hand, you are normally either very slightly EV + or -. It normally is no great shakes either way.

Another factor, an important meta game one, is that in the bulk of these situations you either lose your entire stack or win a comparatively small amount (the choppee). This may also have important factors depending on the table composition and your stack size.

gl

DD