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Old 10-05-2005, 05:24 AM
Rolf Slotboom Rolf Slotboom is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Default Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??

Hmm.. I just checked out the thread you linked to, and even though I did not have the chance to read all of it, I think LA Price's comments basically summed it all up.

As to the actual situation, and the results that Joewatch gave: Well, this is a very extreme example. Why?

1. Lots of your hearts are out.
2. Someone has aces too. (This was to be expected, though not set in stone.)
3. The kings are entirely live.
4. The one with the crummy hands actually has ALL three key cards live: The jack, the ten and the eight.

And even then, even in this absolute worst case scenario, you still have 16% pot equity. This means that assuming everyone had equal stacks of $200, and assuming $10 total in dead money, you would get back 16% back of a total $810 pot, say about $130 or so. And since you are in for $6 already, you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward. And in fact, in the actual situation there are people with shorter stacks than you. Assuming the crummy hand was the first player to go all-in, then you would be in a three-way pot with another one with AA and a second player with KK. Still not a great situation because player 1 has BETTER aces than you *and* the kings are live, but still turning this into a situation that is not *that* bad for you.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com
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