[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Are there that many people out there that are paranoid that the s and p 500 will not achieve up to historical standards

[/ QUOTE ]

Its probably worth noting that the SP500 is not the best place to invest, its simply the easiest for someone who hasn't taken the time to educate themselves.

Take a look at my 3rd quarter comparison post at the end of the 2+2 competition thread....
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I was referring to someone looking for a quick way to get involved in the stock market. I am very comfortable with my knowledge and investment style at the present time, and I feel that i have a long enough track record to justify my passive style for the rest of my life. I have read hundreds of books, articles, etc. on investing and have come to conclusions about the lowest risk-highest return methods of investing, so I do not own any index funds.

Getting back on subject, the thing that is troubling thoughi s that people WILL buy a hot fund over the s and p 500, even though very few mutual funds can beat this index continually. Just doesn't make a whole lot of sense when the track record is there.

And finally, one quarter of performance is not an indicator of any sort of success. I believe that I could be a statistical anomaly and I have had 10 significant years in the investing world.

In short, though, to answer the original posters question, as you can see from this discussion, its not a matter of is the stock market +ev (which it is unless you try some really goofy strategies, day trading, technical analysis etc.), but how much +ev it is. Its as close to a sure bet as can be achieved for the potential reward and risk.