[Bluffoon]

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I've just read a long sequence of posts on a downswing in the Party beginner's tables in the micro-limits forum. It got me wondering how to tell what is the cause of a downswing.

Of course I know there is no such thing as a downswing - every hand that is dealt is RANDOM and INDEPENDENT. Therefore downswings just exist in player's imaginations. But what causes them?

Some possible reasons:
1. Hero's poor cards.
2. Villains' good cards.
3. Flops, turn and river cards.
4. Hero's bad play.
5. Villains' good play.
6. Other reasons.

Ok, these are some possible causes but if I've had a 100bb downswing how can I tell which one is the main cause?

There is so much knowledge about other aspects of the game surely there must be a way of analysing the hands to discover the reason for the downswing.

We've all had sessions where we just fold, fold, fold... That's the fault of the hands we have been dealt.

How about six or seven top pairs loosing at the showdown, every pocket-pair misses the flop, and every flush-draw fails? Again this is just chance.

Is there is a systematic way of finding out? Can PT be used? What about the online stats?

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With knowledge and experience you learn why you are losing. For example if you can see your opponents making maistakes and they are beating you then that points to variance. Also if you analyze your play and you are losing hands that you played correctly then that points to variance. If you can't tell the defference between variance and poor play then you need to read study post and learn until you can.

Pokertracker can help you determine whether you are experiencing variance but it is not a tell all. You could be losing more than your fair share of pocket aces because of variance or you could be failing to protect your hand adequately. You could also be losing too much with your losing bullets and not collecting enough with your winners. The only way you can tell this is by picking apart your game hand by hand.