Re: Was Villain Right?
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Something you want to consider is the amount of times your gutshot is your only good card. Often your A is tainted pretty badly, so you're raising the flop hoping to get one of something like 6-7 turn cards. Not worth it when you consider the chances of being 3bet, as you were.
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Given the flop action, this guy has an overpair or set 90% of the time. None of these hands picks up a club draw on the turn.
The ace is not tainted badly. 2/3rds of the time we hit an ace it is good. (See my math in other parts of the thread.)
The flop raise is debatable, but I like it in a pot this size if villain is capable of laying down big unimproved aces on later streets. Even if you intend to take a free card I still like the flop raise with between 6-7 outs, which is what we have on average on the flop against villain's range. Villain will have AK and AQ type hands often here (before we see the flop 3 bet), and you might even be ahead of KQ. This pot is too big not to fight for.
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