[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
Why 1.5? You aren't putting villian on a range. You are just saying well hell I have an overcard, I'll discount it to 1.5 outs and it's a fold. That's not good enough. The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good. Against AA I have 3 outs. Then weight them. Add in 2 bets worth of implied odds for the straight and see what you come up with.

I would discount set hands just because I think most would try and cr the turn on that board.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Against big unpaired aces, he doesn't have 7 outs. He has 3 outs (and this assumes the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is clean)

2. More to our point of disagreement, I dont think dominated aces are the trouble, because the action on the flop is not really consistent with AK, AQ, even if suited, and the preflop action is not consistent with A5, A8, or A4. The problem with calling is the possibility that villain holds a set. If you want to talk hand distribution, 55, 44, 88, and TT are all consistent with the flop action, and there are a total of 12 combinations of these hands, plus 3 more combos of AA. This is a total of 15 combos he's drawing dead against absent the gutshot. For JJ-KK, there are 18 combos. This is a tossup, and that's why the overs are worth 50% here.

I would do it myself, but I dont have Pokerstove. Will somebody bake the odds on the turn if you put villain on 44, 55, 88, TT-AA. Then for run it again for the same range but add in A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and 99.