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Old 10-04-2005, 03:14 AM
Nfinity Nfinity is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 118
Default Re: AA hand - MrWookie and I disagree

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Edit 2: had to mention this cause this hand really made me think and i really believe anyone that said call (because they fear JJ) has it wrong:

In second level thinking, that Q is a million times more of a scare card for KK than for JJ. When you are willing to CAP preflop, then more importantly CAP the flop assuming you arent totally unknown to him what cards does he put YOU on?

Overcards arent CAPPING. TT isnt CAPPING. You have shown you have a premium pair. AA KK QQ JJ (depending on what he has). I would even go as far as to say JJ is unlikely to be played this hard against so much aggression that we can rule its impact here as fairly low.

With JJ: That Q changes nothing. If you had QQ your still ahead. If you had KK or AA your still ahead. This is why it doesnt make sense at all to think that that Q would have scared him this much.

With KK: He had you 90% on AA or QQ providing you arent crazy. Before that Q came he had one of those hands beat and was losing to the other one. That Q sets you and even after he bets you STILL arent slowing down. Its a huge scare card because it puts him behind every hand he could possibly puts you on. He calls the turn praying you have JJ/AQ overplayed.

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This is wholly elaborate, really thought out, but almost extremely inapropriate for the limits we play. You have to understand that most of the time your opponents aren't exhibiting a first level base of thinking. The person who caps the flop with JJ isnt capping because of what you might hold or what his equity is, or because Sklansky told them too. If Sklansky said anything these guys ain't hearing it. He is capping because He has and OVERPAIR. And when he all of a sudden doesn't, it's not un-natural for that person to STOP capping. The same with KK as well. So said person most of the time would probably continue firing on that Turn.

I commend you for this analysis though, and it does have merit if a read is factored in ANYWHERE.

EDIT: If it makes you feel any better, I agree with you after finding out results, but still will argue my previous point vehemently. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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