[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not result-oriented so I always look for how I can play better. This 'goal' isn't an expectation. It's something that will tell me if I'm going in the right direction.

I think you're misunderstanding me here. Why set my goal to 18% or something when over the short run, I could very well get that high with pure dumb luck and doing nothing right? Theoretically, I can get 100% with pure dumb luck too but you'd need a whole lot more luck if you have no skill in either case.

[/ QUOTE ]
Theoretically, you can NEVER tell if your results are pure luck or if they are skill. You ask "why set your goal to 18% when that could end up being dumb luck?" Well, why set it to 30%? Why not to 40% or 80%? IT IS POSSIBLE that you hit 80% over a month so why not make that your goal?

[ QUOTE ]
A goal over a year should be sustainable, a goal over a month should not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? This makes no sense. What is the point of setting a short term goal that you are most unlikely to reach?

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Today and yesterday, I've had 3 games where the other guy hit a 2-outer and 2 games where the other guy hit a 6-outer, both on the river when I shoved the chips in on the turn. So this may very well be the most unlucky thing that's happened to me considering the odds of that happening, but on the other hand I'm really confident about my play.

[/ QUOTE ]
That isn't even all that bad. Stuff like that happens all the time. I'm surprised that this stands out to you as unusual.

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I really believe you shouldn't think of goals as something to achieve in poker. It should be something that'll come to you when you do the right thing. 30% is hard to get unless you do the right thing, whether you're lucky or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well I finally agree with one thing you said here. You "real goal" should be to make the correct play every time. However, should you achieve this ultimate goal, you will still not reach 30% unless you get lucky(I have no evidence for this aside from what people have said on this board). This is why I have assumed that you included "getting lucky" in your original goal. Becuase it is unachievable without getting lucky. In other words, you MUST GET LUCKY to achieve this goal. Even if you achieve the holy grail of goals(making every correct move).