[SheridanCat]

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Notice that if you miss the check-raise, your double sized bet on the turn is exactly the size it would have been if you had check-raised but the pot is smaller. Your opponents also have one less card to draw so this bet is actually quite a bit better at protecting your hand than even a check-raise would have been.


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Hmmm, this is really interesting. You're trading one shot with unlimited pot odds in exchange for greater fold equity on the next street.

I wonder how this works out if thought of in terms of the Fundamental Theorum.

1) By betting out, which builds the pot, I'm probably going to be giving my drawing opponents proper odds for their draws. So, this hurts me.

2) By checking, and giving the free card, I'm giving my opponents infinite pot odds for their draws. So, this hurts me. However, if no card comes to complete the draws, I now have more fold equity with my big bet and am probably offering them incorrect odds to call again. This is favorable for me.

3) By checking and raising, I'm offering those in between poor odds, so their calls are favorable to me. If no card comes to complete the draw and I bet, any remaining draws will probably still have the odds to call. Not favorable to me.

Of these scenarios, I like number 2 best - now that you point it out.

I'm sure I've missed something here. And I'm sure there's a mathematical way to represent this, but I don't think I have it in me to embarrass myself like that today.

Thanks for making me think about this.

T