Thoughts on Bubble pushing
I just thought of something that i have not considered whilst playing before. When you are in the small blind on the bubble, how much does the BB:s stack size affect your decision whether to push or fold. I'm assuming here you and the BB have atleast 5bb:s.
Imagine this situation
Blinds 100/200
BB 4000
SB (You) 1200
BTN 1400
CO 1400
I just realized (tell me if im wrong) that pushing into a big stack on the bubble is ALOT worse than pushing into a equally or slightly smaller/bigger sized one. Not just because the big stacks calling range might be alot wider since he feels he can afford it(this i already counted with) , but also for the following reasons.
1. If he folds, you get the blinds. But this does not really reduce the big stacks chance of making it ITM by alot. If you steal from a smaller stack it will reduce his shot of making it ITM more, and therefore further increase your chance.
2. If he calls and wins, you are out either way. Big or small.
3. If he calls and loses, the bubble is still on. You are now in great shape to make it ITM, but there is still no guarantee. If an equal stack calls you and you win you are now ITM with a good chance of getting atleast second.
Would like some of the SNG experts tell me if my thinking is correct or flawed. ICM takes this into account right?
|