Re: Positive EV or Bad Poker
Lets not confuse "lots of outs to improve" with "lots of outs to win": if you snag a diamond you are still drawing. In fact, you still will likely have to pay more to draw.
Even though your chances of catching runner-runner are about 4% which translates to a little more better than 24:1 or about 2 outs, its value is less than that since to realize your winning hand you will need to call a turn bet. Realistically, a back-door flush draw is equivalent to about 1.3 outs and a back-door straight draw about 1.1 outs.
So your pair plus whip-saw is worth about 5+2.4= 7.4 outs. When combined with the fact that it cannot get raised this round AND you have position on future rounds, this looks like a no brainer call to me, even considering you are going to lose a fair amount of the time that you DO hit. Plus, you might have the best hand and you might get a free turn card.
It turns out that making plays WITH this sort of "additional value" when you wouldn't make it without that value is fairly common good poker. Other examples would be semi-bluff raising on the turn when you snag a pair to go along with your flush draw. It makes reasonable poke but also makes for reasonable randomization.
- Louie
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