View Single Post
  #14  
Old 10-02-2005, 11:43 PM
w_alloy w_alloy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: waiting for winter to SKI
Posts: 75
Default Re: logic problem (fixed wording cuz i suck)

[ QUOTE ]

let B the probability of choosing a black ball and (1-B) be the probability of choosing a yellow ball.

In Pair 1, if you choose red you get 100*(1/3). if you choose black you get 100*(B). since the proportion of B is unknown, it ranges from either 0 to 60. in this case, if the distribution of black balls is randomly chosen uniformally over the range, then you end up with 30, or 30/90 which will give you the same payoff as red.

in Pair 2

holding (1-B) constant, you get

100*(1/3)+(1-B)*100.

if you choose b) you get 100*B+100*(1-B).

again, if the distribution is randomly chosen to be uniform accross the range you will end up with the same thing. we can make assumptions and set limits like if B<30 then 1-B >30 so a red or yellow ball is more likely than a blakc or yellow ball.

in any case, the answer is, assuming equiprobable outcomes for the proportions of yellow:black that you are indifferent between the options.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about to post something very similiar to this but with poorer wording. The OP's answer seems very obviously wrong. This seems very simple.
Reply With Quote