[Sarge85]

Positive EV or Bad Poker? (also posted on small-stakes fourm)

I think this situation comes up often at low-limit (especially micro-limits).

First a few general assumptions:

Assume a “typical” $.50/$1.00 loose-passive game, 5-6 limpers – no raises pre-flop.

N = Rank of card.
X = Any rank that would not impact the value of our potential draw.

You are dealt: (you have limped into this pot)

(N) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , (N+1) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

6 limp to the flop = $3.00

Flop comes

(N+2) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , (X) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , (N) [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Lets assume the pot has been bet at and is now back to you. We’ll say 4 people have bet $.50 each, and the action is to you (last to act). Is it positive expectation to call this flop – knowing your calling really hoping to hit a stronger drawing hand on the turn. This hand seems to have a lot of outs to draw to, (I have a 3 flush, and 3 open ended straight, and a pair) that if you hit one of them you’d probably want to call a turn bet as well.

Diamonds: = 10
N+3 = 3 (N+3 diamond already counted)
N-1 = 3
N = 2

That’s 18 outs that will probably make your hand worth a call on the turn IF you hit one on the next card.

Should I make this call?

What's the math involved here? I'm curious about the specifics. Of the times I hit my card on the turn there is a percentage of time I'll miss on the river costing me money. However if i do hit runner runner - does that offset the expense of missing both on the turn and river?

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]