[McMelchior]

The FPP re-buys are Turbo. No real read on SB apart from last hand.

I c-bet t800 into the t1,500 pot. SB CR all-in for and additional t1,320. There's t4,320 in the pot, so I'm getting 3.3:1 on my OESD, plenty to call.

I miss my str8 and he takes it down with KJo.

Cards happen, but ... knowing there's a good chance I end up with half of my chips in the pot on a draw most likely to 8 outs (effectively costing me t2,120 for a shot at winning t3,620 or 1.7:1), would it have been prudent NOT to c-bet? Seeing the turn for free, folding to his (likely) bet, and moving on with t4,900, still above average and an M of 9?

I'm trying to figure out the break even point for how often villain needs to fold to make the continuation-bet profitable for me (I'm using approximate values, and I assume I have to hit my str8 to win if I'm CRd):

He folds X% of the time, and I end up with a total of t6,300
He calls (100-X)% of the time: My EV here (twodimes.net) is .32, so I end up with approximately t4,600 on the average.

X*6,300 – (1-X)*4,600 = 0 for break even, or X = 42.

So he has to fold 42% of the time to make the c-bet profitable. That's a LOT! (edit: or is it?)

I am ready to conclude that the best strategy here is to check after on the flop, and fold the turn if I dont hit (and if I'm bet into).

Oppinions?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)