Thread: Set trouble
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Old 10-02-2005, 01:23 AM
rikz rikz is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Default Re: Set trouble

[ QUOTE ]
I check, preflop raiser bets $12, the button raises to $36

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the check. I'd bet $20, then see where I'm at. I expect the preflop raiser has an overpair with a big spade or AK/AQ with a big spade more often than a set, and the other guy probably made his flush. However, you're only slightly less than 2:1 in that situation if you go all-in with both of those hands on the flop.

Possible hands-
pokenum -h 9s ts - kc ks - 3h 3c -- js 8s 3s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js 8s 3s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 9s 461 51.05 442 48.95 0 0.00 0.511
Ks Kc 159 17.61 744 82.39 0 0.00 0.176
3c 3h 283 31.34 620 68.66 0 0.00 0.313

I realize that JJ or 88 has you drawing near dead, but I don't think you can play 33 in a raised pot if you're too worried about set over set. It's the flush and the overpair/flush draws that I think you should base your decision on. That's why I like betting the flop best. KK with Ks probalby raises you, and the flush probably pushes, then you can call and expect KK to call and you have decent odds for a huge pot.

As the hand played out, I think you need to keep the preflop raiser in the hand by calling button's $36. If the preflop raiser raises and then button pushes, then I think you can call and get about 2:1 to see both the turn and the river. The worst case under this scenario is that you call, preflop raiser folds, board does not pair, then you check (or blocking bet) the turn only to see button push. At that point, you probably have to fold.

EDIT: Where I'm talking about "KK" I mean the overpair or overcards with a big spade, as represented in my odds calculation by KsKc. Also, this is a pretty specific read, but I think those are the most likely holdings for these villains other than JJ or 88 that I'm just not going to worry about here.
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