[ QUOTE ]
1 table tournament, party poker.
blinds are 10/15, only third hand of the tournament. Everyone has ~800, Hero has exactly 800 Hero was on the button with black AA...
UTG-fold
EP2-raises to 55
MP1-calls 55
MP2-folds
MP3- raises to 200
LP1-calls 200
LP2-folds
Hero- all in 800
Sb- calls
EP2- calls
MP1- calls
MP3- calls
LP1- calls
Not quite what I wanted to see. Before anyone asks, I only wanted the 1-2 people that had already put 200 in to call. I didn't expect a literal orgy of callers.
Q/10/10 3 6
SB-QQ
EP2-AK
MP1-99
MP3-55
LP1-KJ (???)
Now, believe it or not, I don't think this is a bad beat. My roommate is about to cry ($30 is a lot to him) but I'm trying to explain that this wasn't exactly a bad beat. It's poker, it happens. Now, I'm pretty good at calculating probability, but everytime I try and get my pre-flop edge on this one, I end up proving that gravity does not exist. My most reasonable calculation was that I'm only about 43% preflop, but I think this is wrong too. Any help with this would be appreciated.
Loci
[/ QUOTE ]
The edge depends on the suits of all the hands. Using
www.twodimes.net/poker, I found a range from 38.1%-41.3%. This whole range assumes that both the AK and the KJ are unsuited. The upper end of the range at 41.3% has all of the opponent's hands with hearts and diamonds, so that our chance of making a flush is maximized, and our opponent's chances of making a flush are minimized. The lower end of the range at 38.1% has the worst case of every hand having spades and clubs except AhKd, so that our chance of making a flush is minimized, while the probability of an opposing flush is maximized. Both of these extremes are highly unlikely, but this shows the range, with the actual answer somewhere in the middle. This is in line with the other posted results.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1253581
pokenum -h as ac - ah kd - qh qd - 9h 9d - 5h 5d - kh jd
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 271646 41.28 381066 57.91 5296 0.80 0.416
Kd Ah 13562 2.06 637104 96.82 7342 1.12 0.025
Qd Qh 117726 17.89 538899 81.90 1383 0.21 0.179
9d 9h 110061 16.73 546564 83.06 1383 0.21 0.168
5d 5h 99932 15.19 556693 84.60 1383 0.21 0.152
Jd Kh 37739 5.74 616840 93.74 3429 0.52 0.059
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1253582
pokenum -h as ac - ah kd - qs qc - 9s 9c - 5s 5c - ks jc
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 250940 38.14 401705 61.05 5363 0.82 0.385
Kd Ah 32289 4.91 618378 93.98 7341 1.12 0.054
Qs Qc 118597 18.02 538037 81.77 1374 0.21 0.181
9s 9c 110669 16.82 545965 82.97 1374 0.21 0.169
5s 5c 100336 15.25 556298 84.54 1374 0.21 0.153
Ks Jc 37836 5.75 616820 93.74 3352 0.51 0.059
</pre><hr />