Can\'t figure out my edge on this one...
1 table tournament, party poker.
blinds are 10/15, only third hand of the tournament. Everyone has ~800, Hero has exactly 800 Hero was on the button with black AA...
UTG-fold
EP2-raises to 55
MP1-calls 55
MP2-folds
MP3- raises to 200
LP1-calls 200
LP2-folds
Hero- all in 800
Sb- calls
EP2- calls
MP1- calls
MP3- calls
LP1- calls
Not quite what I wanted to see. Before anyone asks, I only wanted the 1-2 people that had already put 200 in to call. I didn't expect a literal orgy of callers.
Q/10/10 3 6
SB-QQ
EP2-AK
MP1-99
MP3-55
LP1-KJ (???)
Now, believe it or not, I don't think this is a bad beat. My roommate is about to cry ($30 is a lot to him) but I'm trying to explain that this wasn't exactly a bad beat. It's poker, it happens. Now, I'm pretty good at calculating probability, but everytime I try and get my pre-flop edge on this one, I end up proving that gravity does not exist. My most reasonable calculation was that I'm only about 43% preflop, but I think this is wrong too. Any help with this would be appreciated.
Loci
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