[Piers]

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Maybe if the basic assumption is based in reality.

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Why should assumptions be based in reality?

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So you're saying that if I can get enough people to believe that leprechauns exist, I don't need any evidence of their existence to propose a probability of their existence?
I don't think so.
Shooby

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No, Just if you assume that that you can give a value to the probability of leprechauns existing, then it becomes sensible to talk about the probability of leprechauns existing. Otherwise it’s pretty meaningless, unless you know something abut leprechauns that I don’t.

At least that’s about the only way I can make sense of all this talk about the probability of God existing.