[Jeffage]

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The river is more subtle. On the one hand, him betting on the river is suspicious for the reasons you mentioned. However, because of the action on the previous streets, he should put you on precisely (at best) split queens with a four flush, without two pair (before the river). It is mathematically more likely that you do not improve than you do improve. Thus, he can value bet two pair and fold to a raise if he is confident on the read that you will not bluff raise the river. If our opponent instead check/calls he is allowing himself to basically get owned, since Hero will not bluff the river after checking sixth street but will only value bet two pair or better.

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This is all interesting, but typical opponents are babies and don't want to be raised on the river when they know you took the freebie with a good draw. Most will check again even though what you're saying is right. If it's a thinking opponent, what you say has more validity. But typical opponents don't think...I'll bet and fold to a raise; they want to see showdown and don't want to call a raise. So most will check.

So if I or you are villian in this hand, we would bet two pair and fold. I just think typical opponents are more likely to check and if they bet they have a boat (majority) or something you don't expect (once in awhile). If I check 6th, I am paying off river with Bart's hand here.

Jeff