[Dudd]

I think it's pretty clear that the best team wins less than 60% of the time. Let's assume that the better team wins 70% of the time in a 5 game series, and 80% of the time in a 7 game series. I think that's pretty generous, given that even the best team in baseball history only won 73% of their games over a 162 game schedule, and the teams in the playoffs are markedly better on average. Anyways, simple math shows that the probability of the best team winning is .7*.8*.8, or only 45% of the time, and that's with fairly high win percentages in any one series.