Re: Laying Down an Overpair - Party 20
I think it's a bit closer than people have made out, but still a fold. Assuming we're good if we hit our 2 outer, we have effective odds of 14:1 because button is almost sure to call. If button caps our odds are reduced to about 12:1 though, and to 13.5:1 if he folds. To make up for the odds shortfall you need to win about 8 BB on the turn and river. Given the action so far this isn't impossible, but you could be outdrawn often enough by Kings or Aces or a 5 who build a bigger hand. I'd say that, with the chance you're already nearly dead to quads, would make it a fold.
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