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Old 09-30-2005, 01:27 AM
craig r craig r is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: san diego
Posts: 84
Default Re: Help me understand these numbers...

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I realize that it's impossible to get even action, but to say that it's a myth that bookies want even action is silly. They make their money on the juice, not by "outsmarting" the public by adjusting lines.

You'd have to be pretty dense or uninformed to be repeatedly taking lines from a bookie that don't match what you can see in the sports section (unless of course the errors are in your favor).

How does a website "deal double" lines anyway? You mean give one line for one side, and another for the other? A bookie might be able to get away with that with some people, I don't see how a web site would.

Yeah, no question, a bookmaker is gambling every Sunday, and it's +EV because of the juice. But other things being equal, they are going to prefer less variance. That's why they layoff action. It's a myth that they get even action; that they would prefer it is not a myth.

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So the sportsbook managers who have said they want to win and don't care about even action are lying? Scucci is lying? Roxy Roxborough (a "line maker") is lying?

Also, the lines don't have to be off by much for them to make a lot of money.

The way the websites deal two lines is once they peg you as a "sharp", when you login in you get the more sharp line I am not going to give out the books here that do it. But, they aren't small time books that do it.

What sportsbooks do you know that layoff bets? Bookies might do it, but most of the local bookies are much smaller than vegas and offshore books. Maybe the vegas casinos, but most of the money is not bet in vegas.

craig
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