Re: A22 hand
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What is your plan for the rest of the hand?
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Modaddy - Bet the flop for sure. What to do next will depend on the turn and any possible reads you may have on your opponents, but you should probably lead with this all the way to the showdown.
You bet the flop both to charge the low draws and also charge anyone who might be drawing with the case ace.
Since you can see seven cards after the flop, there are 45 cards whose whereabouts are unknown to you. Your five opponents have 20 cards between them and the case ace may be one of those twenty cards. But there are another 25 cards your five opponents do not have, and the case ace may also be one of those twenty five cards. The odds are thus 25 to 20 (5 to 4) against any of your five opponents having the case ace.
You won't get the holder of the case ace to drop by betting, but you'll make him pay for the privelege of trying to draw out against you. And assuming the complete hand of the holder of the case ace is A345, any three four or five without a jack or deuce beats you.
279/820 = 0.340 is probability anyone who has a hand like A345 (or any hand that has none of your own cards and also doesn't have a pair) will draw out on you. That makes you about a two to one favorite against such an opponent.
Roughly, then, .34*20/45= 0.151, and you're about a 17 to 3 favorite.
Bet and (usually) collect when you're the big favorite for high. Period.
Buzz
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