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Old 09-29-2005, 01:23 AM
lautzutao lautzutao is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 6
Default Re: MY first O8 post. Tear it apart.

I think calling this flop pot bet is a big mistake.

Ok, question 1...do you think you are ahead on this flop? If I had your hand I would say no, but I don't really know what your opponent could be betting the flop with that you can beat...maybe he's an idiot

So we're behind on the high more than likely. Ok, question 2. Do we think we're good for the low? We COULD be...villian might have had A3xx or something else and he hit trips(my guess) but we have no counterfeit protection, not to mention we still have to draw for it...

Question 3: What can we put the villian on? He's bet the pot, so he must like his hand. I don't know anything about him, so I'll assume he's a fish and could have anything. Lets see some good scenarios and some bad ones...

He's semibluffing with A2trash or A25x...quite possible but not probable. This is probably the best case scenario we have, and against it we're going to scoop or 3/4 him a good amount.

He's Got A3xx...Ok, we're drawing to a live nut low, but need 1 of 2 sixes to capture high or 16 outs to the low...I'll estimate that you have 10 outs. Not great as most of those "outs" are to the nut low, you're realistically not gonna scoop this.

Worst case: A23x Yikes...quarter-central. He has the best hand and a draw to the nut low. You have 2 outs to the high, and you're going to split the low. You cannot call.
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The most likely case IMO is villian has A3xx, and you don't have any type of odds to call this, implied or otherwise. This isn't worth a pot call to me.
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