[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

MP3 has a much wider range: 55++, A8s++, suited broadways (~200 hands)


Here is my at the table back of the envelope math (no calculator)

SB calls ~60 hands out of ~1200 or 5%
MP1 calls ~60 hands out of 200 hands or about 30%
MP3 calls 70% of his range since he will be getting ~2:1 on his money.

Ignore multiple callers.

SB and MP1 become 1 player with a combined calling rate of 35%, MP2 calls 70%, Hero wins the pot ~20% (.7 X .3) of the time winning 20% X T13,500 (uncontested) EV= ~2700 chips.

Hero is 30% against SB and MP1's range; 35% X T24,000 = ~8000
EV = 35% X T8,000 = T2,600.

Hero is 40% against MP3 range; 45% X T24,000 = ~11,000
EV = 45% X T11,000 = ~T5,000

total EV = T2700 +T2600 + T5000 = ~T10,000 or EV neutral.

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you really think that people are calling the 4th raise (no matter what whacky action got them there, with hands like AQ?) Don't you read all the 'should i fold KK preflop' threads over in MTT?