[chadplusplus]

Well the title of your post probably didn't help get responses, regardless...

Assuming and somehow knowing that he does indeed have an OESD, you're ahead in the hand!! Therefore...

Max size bet: bet as much as you can without him folding which depends upon reads. You want to build the pot because you ARE the favorite to win.

Min size bet: well, that takes some math...

But based upon the FTOP, you want him to make mistakes, which means that you must bet at least enough to make it a mistake for him to call. So lets try to determine exactly how much that is...

For the sake of this argument, we'll assume that if he misses, we're firing again after the turn.

So his immediate odds for hitting on the turn are 8/47, so we must make his pot odds greater than that. For the following calculations, y = your bet and x = pot size

(y) / (y + y + x) > 8/47
47y > 16y + 8x
31y > 8x
y > 8/31x ~ 1/4 * x

so, your bet must be at least greater than 1/4 the pot assuming you plan on firing again if he misses on the turn.

You get essentially the same result for the size of the turn bet, so you must bet at least 1/4 the size of the pot after the turn for him to make a mistake in calling to the river.

How do I personally play it? I usually fire a slightly greater than pot size bet out because most of the donks at $25NL and $50NL will continue to call it and if I puss out and not bet the turn, it makes his flop call a mistake even if I give him the free river card.

DISCLAIMER!! I worked the math out so that the gurus on here can correct my mistakes, coz' I'm not too sure myself - but I think its mostly correct. The only thing I can't ever remeber for sure is from which odds you subtract the one. For instance, if he has 10 cards to hit on the river, is he getting 1:4.7 odds or 1:5.2 odds?

And ladies... beware of Ron Mexico.


Edit: I was going to add something in here about implied odds... but I see it has been covered by other posters while I was drafting this.