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Old 09-28-2005, 12:03 PM
SheridanCat SheridanCat is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Chicago
Posts: 86
Default Re: KQs 3 handed (also posted in Probability forum)

Check out Poker Stove for a good equity simulator.

Here's what it says:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 32.0595 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { KQo }
Hand 2: 32.0275 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { AA, AKs-A2s, AKo-A2o }
Hand 3: 35.9130 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { JJ-22 }

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.9062 % [ 00.35 00.00 ] { KdQd }
Hand 2: 30.7111 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { AA, AKs-A2s, AKo-A2o }
Hand 3: 34.3827 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { JJ-22 }


</pre><hr />

You'll notice that suitedness doesn't change things much.

You don't mention stack sizes. However, given this payout structure, I can see folding if there's a chance another small stack will be knocked out and you'll move to 2nd place money.

If you are one of two short stacks and the other shortie gets in a hand with the large stack, it's perfectly proper to try to survive into second given the payout structure, in my opinion.

I think this is even more true if you actually the shortest stack. Because if you and the other short stack go out on the same hand, you'd get 3rd place money.

As you can see, the equity is very close. I don't think that edge is enough to gamble $65 on.

I'm sure someone will disagree, but I just don't see the upside of getting involved. The difference in money is smaller between 2nd and 1st than betwen 2nd and 3rd, and that skews the strategy, I believe.

Regards,

T
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