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Old 09-27-2005, 12:31 PM
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Default Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?

[ QUOTE ]
Really good game. I feel like I would have raised if i had just one club.... but I didn't without. Flop donker was clowny but very likely to have a 7 and was not solely a draw donker.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>....???

[/ QUOTE ]
Your getting 15-1 to call. The question is should you raise or call? I believe if a raise can increase your probability of winning this big pot by even just a few percentage points than a raise is warranted. Based on my read the villain has either a pair or a flush draw. If the villain is on a flush draw than raising is vital as we would want to get any pair draw out of there. If the villain has a pair, the hero is not in a bad spot to raise either. By raising the hero may still be able to take a free card on the turn if someone else cold calls the heros flop raise. Overall, if there even a slight chance that the villain can have a flushdraw here then the hero must raise. Since the hero already has the odds to call, investing one more small bet is necessary if it will improve the heros chance of winning this large pot, and I think it will. So I would raise.
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