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Old 09-26-2005, 02:25 PM
jb9 jb9 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 136
Default Re: Mathematical Expectation in tourneys vs. cash games

While the mathematical expectation of any particular hand may or may not be the same in a tournament v. a cash game (I don't know the math that well, but I suspect the structure of the tournament would affect hand values), the decision about how to play the hand should not be made on mathematical expectation alone.

Even in cash games other factors are always considered, but there are even more things to think about in a tournament: relative stack sizes, reads on opponents, table image, number of players left in the tournament, payout structure of the tournament, blind size, time before next blind increase, whether you are playing to win or be "in the money", etc. (some of these are relevant in cash games too, of course).

Since the goal is to win the tournament (or at least be in the money), your decisions should be directed toward achieving that goal, not maximizing the long term mathematical expectation of the cards you are holding.

Depending upon the circumstances, the correct tournament strategy with a hand like KTo when it is folded to you in middle position when you are on the bubble could be to fold, raise 3-6x the big blind, or go all in. Early in a tournament, the correct stategy would usually be to fold.

Whatever mathematical expectation KTo has on a particular hand is less important than (1) how valuable it would be to steal the blinds, (2) how likely you are to be able to steal them, and (3) what are the best/worst things that could happen on this hand (i.e., could you get knocked out of the tournament or could you knock someone else out?).

Also, remember that in a tournament you can benefit by not playing a hand (e.g., when someone gets eliminated), which is another major difference from cash game play.

I'm not sure if I'm explaining this clearly (and I have to stop typing now), but maximizing your expecation for a tournament is not as simple as tyring to play so that you maximize the expectation of each individual hand in tournament.
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